The Rate Guy

DAYzed And Confused

On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.

I Can Give You the Rate or the Timeline, But Not Both at Once

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family’s driving mishaps and the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they...

Will Deficits Push the T10 to 7%?

This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields

Just How Inflationary Could Tariffs Be?

Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump’s biggest...

Gaslighting Doesn't Exist. You just Made It Up Because You're Crazy.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State’s repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the...

The Fed is Cutting and the T10 is Surging?

We're baaaaack! On this week’s episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can’t take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're...

The Fed is Still Cutting in November

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November.  FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast)...

JMo Unmasked

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what’s next. Plus, JMo finally...

The Fed Should Cut 50bps This Week, but They Won't

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we’re keeping it short and sweet. We’re prepping for Wednesday’s rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won’t go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We’ll also touch on what you might...

The Fed Should Cut to 3.25%

In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed. Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has...