The Rate Guy

The Fed Should Cut to 3.25%

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Episode notes

In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed.

Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how that ties into the Fed’s decision-making.

We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunker’s analysis on how much the labor market has already cooled (link), and ask the key question: will cutting rates fast reaccelerate inflation?